第一太平戴维斯（Savills）：2024年全球房地产资本市场年度回顾报告（英文版）（33页）.pdf

1、 Taking Stock 2024:A review of global real estate capital markets For commercial real estate,its safe to say that 2023 was not what we envisaged,or indeed hoped for.This is despite a relatively positive economic backdrop,with inflation following the path of least resistance,and strong labour market

2、outcomes bringing the elusive soft landing into focus.At this point last year,we expected activity to bottom out around mid-year,with a recovery taking hold in the second half.But the recovery failed to materialise,as economic resilience gave rise to higher for longer interest rates,extending a peri

3、od of wait-and-see in real estate capital markets.As we look ahead to the rest of 2024,we are optimistic that pricing will bottom out around mid-year,with a recovery taking hold in the second half.At this point,you may have a sense of dj vu.However,while not wanting to succumb to the this time is di

4、fferent syndrome,there are good reasons to believe that this time is different.The current downturn remains predominantly interest rate driven;this cycle is somewhat unique in so far as fundamentals have,on the whole,remained relatively robust.So it stands to follow that as rates come down,values wi

5、ll stabilise,and investors will return to the market.Last year we wrote of risk and opportunity being two sides of the same coin.This year,investors are potentially facing a biased coin in favour of opportunity.Within this report,we make a number of references to transactional turnover in some marke

6、ts falling to levels not seen since 2009.Looking back at previous periods of stress to find learnings for today can be misguided,however,one observation we feel is highly pertinent is that when we emerged from the depths of the Global Financial Crisis,we were experiencing a true dearth of both equit