第一太平戴维斯（Savills）：2025年第四季度欧洲食品杂货业研究报告（英文版）（12页）.pdf

1、Source:Unsplash-Tare ClarkEuropean Grocery ReportSPOTLIGHTRETAIL EUROPE-Q4 2025RESEARCHAt the decades midpoint,Europe finds itself in a more settled place than the one that defined its turbulent early stages.Volatility induced by the pandemic,disruptions to Ukrainian exports,and the spike in energy

2、and fertiliser costs has faded.In its place sits a slower economic landscape in which the traditional relationships between labour markets,incomes and consumption behave less predictably.As a non-discretionary category,grocery fared better than most,proving resilient through the inflationary cycle,e

3、ven as some retailers absorbed rising input costs and endured prolonged margin compression to shield consumers.However,the price of that protection is now becoming clear,as long-run balance sheet implications come into view.Having successfully steered headline inflation back to target-HICP dipped to

4、 1.9%in December 2025-the European Central Bank has held the policy rate at 2%since June.Food price growth has cooled to 2.5%,down from 6.1%two years prior,while services inflation(3.4%)now accounts for much of the remaining stickiness.While rate cuts are possible Grocery navigating a new normalin t

5、he near term,their stimulatory effect would likely be modest.Meanwhile,labour markets remain historically tight,with EU unemployment anchored around 6%.The long-standing assumption that low unemployment translates into stronger consumption has weakened after years of real-income erosion,leaving hous

6、eholds cautious.Savings behaviour reinforces this sentiment;households within the eurozone allocate more to reserves than they used to,with the savings rate at 15.1%at end-2025,well above the 2014-19 average of 12.6%,according to Oxford Economics data.KEY TAKEAWAYS01Smaller convenience formats in fa