RICS：2026年第一季度英国商业地产监测报告（英文版）（14页）.pdf

1、UK Commercial Property MonitorQ1 2026ECONOMICSECONOMICSCredit conditions deteriorate and capital value expectations weaken on the back of Middle East conflictThe Q1 2026 RICS UK Commercial Property Monitor results point to a more challenging market backdrop than was evident at the end of last year,p

2、articularly on the investment side.Unsurprisingly,respondents frequently cite the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as weighing on sentiment.Two areas stand out as being particularly adversely affected:the credit conditions indicator,which has shifted sharply into negativ

3、e territory this quarter,and the nearterm outlook for capital values.In parallel with this,the proportion of respondents viewing the market as being in the early downturn phase has risen to 27%,up from 17%in Q4,with a notable downward shift in the share seeing an early upturn.That said,at least for

4、now,conditions across the occupier market appear relatively less impacted,although the overall trend remains subdued.Occupier Market The headline Occupier Sentiment Index(OSI)came in at 10 in Q1 2026,essentially unchanged from the reading returned last quarter.Tenant demand at the allproperty level

5、posted a net balance of 8%(compared with-9%in Q4),with office and industrial demand effectively flat at-4%and-1%respectively Credit conditions indicator turns sharply negative,with capital value expectations downgraded amid renewed inflationary pressures Occupier demand largely unaffected by the geo

6、political backdrop at this stage Twelve-month rental growth projections for prime office and industrial sectors remain in positive territory,though modestly scaled backrics.org/economics(against 5%and 2%previously).The retail sector again recorded the weakest demand reading at a net balance of 19%,a