世界经济论坛：2026分化加剧：全球金融体系碎片化经济成本测算洞察报告（英文版）（46页）.pdf

1、Deepening Divides:The Cost of a More Fragmented Financial System I N S I G H T R E P O R TJ U N E 2 0 2 6In collaboration withOliver Wyman,a Marsh businessImages:Getty Images;Unsplash;Pexels;ShutterstockDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,

2、insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,

3、Partners or other stakeholders.2026 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.ContentsForeword 3Executive summary 51 The evo

4、lution of global financial system fragmentation 61.1.Fragmentation in 2025 and 2026:A turning point 71.2.Breaking from precedent in trade and finance 71.3.Norms under pressure 102 The economic costs of fragmentation 142.1.Four modelled scenarios capture the cost 14 of existing fragmentation and pote

5、ntial escalation2.2.Existing trade and financial policies will reduce GDP 17 growth and raise inflation,and the damage could worsen 2.3.Recommendations to mitigate fragmentation 213 Risks and resilience in Africa 233.1.African EMDEs face outsized fragmentation-related risks 243.2.Fragmentation is un

6、folding via multiple channels across 24 African economies,exacerbating challenges 3.3.Opportunities for African economies amid global turbulence 28Conclusion 31Appendix:Quantitative analysis output 32Contributors 36Endnotes 38Deepening Divides:The Cost of a More Fragmented Financial System2ForewordD