VTPI：2026自动驾驶落地进程预测报告：对交通规划的影响（英文版）（49页）.pdf

1、 www.vtpi.org Infovtpi.org 250-508-5150 Todd Alexander Litman 2013-2026 You are welcome and encouraged to copy,distribute,share and excerpt this document and its ideas,provided the author is given attribution.Please send your corrections,comments and suggestions for improvement.Autonomous Vehicle Im

2、plementation Predictions Implications for Transport Planning 19 April 2026 By Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute Waymos self-driving taxis are a well-publicized example of autonomous vehicles.Summary This report explores the impacts of autonomous(also called self-driving,driverless or r

3、obotic)vehicles,and their implications for transportation planning.It investigates how quickly such vehicles are likely to develop and be deployed based on experience with previous vehicle technologies;their likely benefits and costs;how they will affect travel activity;and their impacts on road,par

4、king and public transit planning.This analysis indicates that Level 5 autonomous vehicles,able to operate without a driver,may be commercially available and legal to use in some jurisdictions by the late 2020s,but will initially have high costs and limited performance.Some benefits,such as independe

5、nt mobility for affluent non-drivers,may begin in the 2030s but most impacts,including reduced traffic and parking congestion,independent mobility for low-income people(and therefore reduced need for public transit),increased safety,energy conservation and pollution reductions,will only be significa

6、nt when autonomous vehicles become common and affordable,probably in the 2040s to 2060s,and some benefits may require dedicated autonomous vehicle lanes,which raises social equity concerns.Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions:Implications for Transport Planning Victoria Transport Policy Ins