安联（Allianz）：2026高温制约发展：极端高温造成的经济损失分析报告（英文版）（30页）.pdf

1、Allianz ResearchToo hot to grow28 May 2026The economic costs of extreme heat Allianz Research2Content Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 5-12 The economic transmission of heat stress Page 13-16 The macroeconomic implications of heat stressPage 17-19 The fiscal burden Page 20-23 From exposure to resilien

2、ce:the three-pillar adaptation planPage 24-26 Appendix28 May 20263SummaryExecutiveHazem KricheneSenior Economist,CJasmin GrschlSenior Economist for E Extreme heat is emerging as a structural economic risk,with Europe highly exposed.Heat stress events have multiplied sevenfold since the 1980s while t

3、he average death toll per event has risen fivefold.That share partly reflects measurement:vital registration and excess-mortality surveillance are far more developed in Europe than in much of Africa and South Asia,where heat deaths go largely uncounted.But genuine structural vulnerability is also at

4、 work ageing populations,dense urban building stock designed to retain warmth and severely underdeveloped cooling infrastructure,with air-conditioning penetration averaging 19%across Europe against roughly 90%in the US.The economic transmission of heat stress is non-linear,with a critical threshold

5、around 30C beyond which productivity losses intensify sharply.Below this level,warming reduces heating costs and is associated with modest productivity gains.Above this level,the relationship reverses and both channels worsen with each additional degree.The dominant effect operates through labor:out

6、put per hour declines by approximately USD1.3(constant PPP,3%of mean hourly output in our 2014-2024 sample)for every degree across the 30-35C range.Wage adjustments follow productivity with a lag,so the short-run cost falls disproportionately on firm profitability before gradually transmitting to ho