海牙战略研究中心：2026交织的未来：未来百年气候变化与全球趋势相互影响洞察报告（英文版）（25页）.pdf

1、Intersecting FuturesGlobal Trends Shaping and Shaped by Climate Change over the Next CenturyThijs van Aken and Laura Birkman May 2026Intersecting FuturesGlobal Trends Shaping and Shaped by Climate Change over the Next CenturyAuthors:Thijs van Aken and Laura BirkmanContributors:Anna Hoefnagels,Lennar

2、t Engel and Ali AydogduThe cover image was AI-generated with OpenAIs ChatGPT.May 2026This essay has been adapted from research conducted in 2025 for the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and WaterManagement.The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.All rights reserved.Nopart of this report may be reprod

3、uced and/or published in any form by print,photo print,microfilm or any other means without prior written permission from HCSS.All images are subject to the licenses of their respectiveowners.Table of Contents1.Introduction 42.Geopolitical Shifts and Pressures 72.1.Climate Geopolitics in a Fragmenti

4、ng World(now-2050)72.2.Demographic Shifts and Emerging Risks to Global Stability(2050-2100)103.Geoeconomic and Technological Trends 123.1.Critical Dependencies:Innovation,Supply Chains and Financing(now-2050)133.2.The New Economics of Climate Resilience:Perpetuating Inequalities?(2050-2100)164.Envir

5、onmental and Societal Developments 194.1.Climate Impacts on Social Stability(now-2050)194.2.Climate Displacement,Environmental Degradation and Sovereign Decline(2050-2100)215.Conclusion 24Intersecting Futures|Global Trends Shaping and Shaped by Climate Change over the Next CenturyIII1.IntroductionTh

6、e risks of climate change are well known.Rising seas,extreme weather,higher temper-atures,and natural resource scarcity are driving ecosystem degradation,biodiversity loss,and economic pressures.These direct,or first-order,efects are worsening.States around the world are already facing increased dis