荣鼎咨询（Rhodium Group）：2025年度盘点：美国能源与排放展望报告（英文版）（33页）.pdf

1、 Taking Stock 2025 September 10,2025 Authors:Ben King Hannah Kolus Michael Gaffney Anna van Brummen Nathan Pastorek John Larsen Energy&Climate RHODIUM GROUP|ENERGY&CLIMATE TAKING STOCK 2025 2 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 A NEW OUTLOOK FOR US EMISSIONS 5 RAPIDLY CHANGING POLICY ENVIRONMENT 5 CONTINUE

2、D DEMAND FOR CLEAN ENERGY RESOURCES,CONTINUED NON-POLICY HEADWINDS 8 BOUNDING UNCERTAINTY IN PROJECTIONS 10 USING RHG-NEMS 11 EMISSIONS OUTLOOK AND KEY SECTORAL TRENDS 12 POWER,TRANSPORT,AND CARBON REMOVAL SECTORS CONTRIBUTE MOST TO EMISSION DECLINES 13 POWER SECTOR TRENDS CLEANER DESPITE SURGING EL

3、ECTRICITY DEMAND 14 ZEV SALES SHARES CONTINUE TO INCREASE,THOUGH AT A SLOWING PACE 18 FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTION INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY TRADE 18 INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS HEAVILY DRIVEN BY OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION 21 HOUSEHOLD ENERGY BILLS DECLINE 23 IMPACTS OF REGULATORY ROLLBACKS 25 EMISSIONS ARE LOWER WITH

4、NO REGULATORY ROLLBACKS 25 KEEPING TAILPIPE REGULATIONS RAISES THE FLOOR FOR LDV ZEV SALES 26 POWER PLANT REGULATIONS DISPLACE COAL CAPACITY AND BOOST RENEWABLES AND GAS 27 WHATS NEXT?29 ACCESS THE DATA 29 ABOUT RHODIUM GROUP 31 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 32 DISCLOSURES 32 RHODIUM GROUP|ENERGY&CLIMATE TAKING S

5、TOCK 2025 3 Executive summary The first seven months of the second Trump administration and 119th Congress have seen the most abrupt shift in energy and climate policy in recent memory.After the Biden administration adopted meaningful policies to drive decarbonization,Congress and the White House ar

6、e now enacting a policy regime that is openly hostile to wind,solar,and electric vehicles and seeks to promote increased fossil fuel production and use.In this years Taking Stock reportRhodium Groups annual independent outlook of the evolution of the US energy system and greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions