1、Davis Ellison,Pieter-Jan Vandoren and Frank BekkersMarch 2025Rough Seas AheadMaritime Trends and Scenarios until 2050Rough Seas AheadMaritime Trends and Scenarios until 2050Authors:Davis Ellison,Pieter-Jan Vandoren and Frank Bekkers Contributors:Bryan Smeets and Tom ConnollyMarch 2025This study was

2、carried out by the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies(HCSS)within a framework agreement with the Royal Netherlands Navy.The conclusions and recommen-dations presented in this study are the result of independent research.Responsibility for the content rests with the authors and the authors alone.The

3、Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.All rights reserved.Nopart of this report may be reproduced and/or published in any form by print,photo print,microfilm or any other means without prior written permission from HCSS.All images are subject to the licenses of their respectiveowners.Table of Contents1

4、.Introduction 12.A new global trade order at sea?International competition and shifting maritime trade patterns 33.Rising seas:Climate change and the maritime environment 104.Scenario one:A Hot War in ColdWaters 175.Scenario two:Death on the Nile 296.Scenario three:Clash of the PacificTitans 377.Sce

5、nario four:Wild West in the High Seas 478.Conclusions 56Rough Seas Ahead|Maritime Trends and Scenarios until 2050IIIRather than looking at coming challenges as an extension of present challenges,we now contemplate how the very geographic,economic and geopolitical parameters within which the Navy ope

6、rates,can change.1.IntroductionWhat could be the demands on the Dutch Navy by the 2040-50 period?What is the scope for action that it and its European partners may have or must create-to anticipate and cover any projected changes?This study builds on a previous HCSS study,Maritime Security in a Time