BIMCO：2025干散货航运市场概况与展望报告：美国加征关税导致需求前景走弱（4月版）（英文版）（14页）.pdf

1、 Dry Bulk Shipping Market Overview&Outlook US tariff increases drive weaker demand outlook April 2025 Supply/demandDemandSupplyDry Bulk Shipping Market Overview&OutlookUS tariff increases drive weaker demand outlookSupply is forecast to grow 1.5-2.5%in 2025 and 2-3%in 2026.That is lower than fleet g

2、rowth,due to slower sailing speed.Demand is estimated to stagnate in 2025 and grow 1-2%in 2026.A change in US policy is affecting economic growth and curbing dry bulk cargo demand growth.The supply/demand balance is expected to weaken in both 2025 and 2026.Consequently,freight rates and second-hand

3、ship prices could soften.We have assumed that ships will not be able to fully return to the Red Sea during 2025 and 2026.The full return of ships would be equivalent to a 2%decrease in ship demand.Chinas GDP growth is forecast to slow to 4.0%in both 2025 and 2026,according to the IMF.Growth is expec

4、ted to slow,due to tariffs,Chinas property crisis and deflation.Iron ore shipments are forecast to stagnate 2024 to 2026.Chinese domestic steel demand is slowing,and exports are unlikely to fully compensate for it.Coal shipments are estimated to fall by 4%between 2024 and 2026,due to rapid deploymen

5、t of renewable energy capacity and higher domestic mining in importers.Between 2024 and 2026,minor bulk shipments are expected to grow 4%.An increase in US tariffs is expected to lead to slower growth.The fleet is expected to grow 5.7%between end 2024 and end 2026.The capesize fleet is expected to g

6、row the slowest,due to low deliveries.The dry bulk orderbook is equivalent to 10.3%of the current fleet.It is shrinking in size due to a recent drop in newbuilding contracting.16.3m DWT are forecast to be recycled between 2024 and 2026.As market conditions worsen,recycling of older ships could incre