BIMCO：2026全球集装箱航运市场概况与展望报告：伊朗局势加剧市场展望不确定性（3月版）（英文版）（12页）.pdf

1、 Container Shipping Market Overview and Outlook Iran war amplifies outlook uncertainty March 2026 Container Shipping Market Overview&Outlook Iran war amplifies outlook uncertainty Supply/demandDemandSupplyContainer Shipping Market Overview and OutlookIran war amplifies outlook uncertaintyIn 2026,sup

2、ply and demand growth will depend on when Strait of Hormuz transits can resume.If transits are not resumed,we expect supply growth of 2.0-3.5%while demand could contract by between-0.5%and-2.5%.Supply growth is estimated to marginally outpace demand growth in 2027.Supply growth is forecast at 4.0-5.

3、5%while we expect demand to grow 2.5-4.5%.We consider it unlikely that ships no longer serving the Persian Gulf will be redeployed in other trade lanes.Therefore,we expect a slight weakening of the supply/demand balance in both 2026 and 2027.The outlook contains significant uncertainty as no one can

4、 predict when transits through the Strait of Hormuz can resume.The International Monetary Fund estimates that the global economy will grow 3.3%in 2026 and 3.2%in 2027.The latest 2026 forecast included increased growth estimates for the worlds five largest economies.Broadly speaking,conditions for th

5、e global manufacturing sector have improved as the global manufacturing PMI has remained above 50 during the last seven months.Retail sales volumes growth has weakened in the US and China.In December 2025,both countries even saw lower sales volumes year-on-year.In the EU,growth remains stable around

6、 2%year-on-year.The return to normal Suez Canal routings has been delayed.Due to Iran/Houthi links,the perceived risk of transiting the Red Sea has increased and earlier decisions to return some services to Suez Canal routings have been reversed.Fleet capacity is expected to exceed 36m TEU by the en