BIMCO：2024全球集装箱航运市场概况与展望报告：船队持续扩张令市场前景承压（12月版）（英文版）（12页）.pdf

1、 Container Shipping Market Overview&Outlook Continued fleet expansion darkens outlook December 2024 Container Shipping Market Overview&Outlook Continued fleet expansion darkens outlook Supply/demand balance Despite the fastest growth in supply and the fleet since 2010,the supply/demand balance tight

2、ened in 2024.Ship demand has increased as 90%of the capacity that normally transits the Suez Canal has instead been sailing via the Cape of Good Hope,significantly increasing both average sailing distance and ship demand.However,fleet expansion remains a concern once ships can return to normal routi

3、ngs.We estimate that fleet growth will increase supply in 2026 by 46%compared to 2019 before the contracting boom began.Cargo volumes are forecast to increase ship demand by 22%between 2019 and 2026.Even though we expect that average sailing speeds will continue to decline and reduce supply,growth f

4、orecasts still point to the supply/demand balance being weaker than in 2019 once ships can return to normal Suez Canal routings.2019 was a year when freight rates were much lower than have been the case in recent years.We have changed our assumption for when ships will be able return to normal Suez

5、Canal routings.We now assume that reroutings will continue to impact all of 2025,and that ships will be able to return to normal routings throughout 2026.Our forecast therefore indicates a slight weakening of the supply/demand balance in 2025 followed by a significant weakening in 2026 as ship deman

6、d is expected to fall.On the other hand,if ships are able to return to the Suez Canal throughout 2025,we expect a significant weaking of market conditions followed by a slight improvement in 2026.If ships will still not be able to return to normal routings in 2026,the slight weaking of the supply/de