1、Allianz ResearchHow AI is rewiring global trade21 May 2026Concentrating Power,Dependencies,and Supply ChainsAllianz Research2Content Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 5-11 An AI boom built in Asia Page 12-20 The growth in trade in services and data flows is accelerating with the diffusion of AIPage 21-

2、24 The world is flat:AI reconfigures the geography of trade and dependencies Page 25-29 The race for AI dominance is increasingly also being fought through industrial policy 21 May 20263SummaryExecutiveJasmin GrschlSenior Economist for EAI and trade are no longer separate policy domains.AI growth de

3、pends on globalized supply chains for semiconductors,computing infrastructure and digital services while trade is increasingly shaped by who controls AI infrastructure,data flows and cloud capacity.Trade openness is a structural precondition for AI-driven productivity gains.Open economies benefit di

4、sproportionately from cheaper inputs,faster innovation diffusion and AI adoption spillovers.Trade openness accounts for 23%of the variation in AI adoption across countries with highly open economies,such as Singapore,UAE and Ireland,leading in diffusion.However,while AI can significantly boost growt

5、h,its benefits are unlikely to be evenly distributed.Export volumes of AI-enabling goods have surged from USD1trn in 2014 to USD3.8trn in 2025(+280%),accounting for 15%of global trade and far outpacing the 40%growth in goods trade overall.Asia dominates the supply side,accounting for 65%of global AI

6、-related exports and seven of the top ten exporters,led by China(18%of AI-related exports),Taiwan(12%)and Hong Kong(11%).The composition remains concentrated in intermediate inputs(76%)and equipment(23%),reflecting deep dependence on semiconductors and data-center infrastructure.On the demand side,t