Frontier Economics：2025道路交通领域电子燃料市场规模化发展情景分析报告（英文版）（59页）.pdf

1、 WWW.FRONTIER-ECONOMICS.COM SCENARIOS FOR THE MARKET RAMP-UP OF E-FUELS IN ROAD TRANSPORT Convenience translation,original in German A study for UNITI Bundesverband EnergieMittelstand e.V.JANUARY 2025 Updated version Table of contents Summary 4 2 Background and objectives of the study 9 3 Costs of e

2、-fuels in the international market ramp-up 11 3.1 Key cost components of e-fuels and their drivers 11 3.2 Evaluation and assessment of current projections for production costs for e-fuels 16 3.3 Long-term cost range of e-fuels 24 4 Possible future blending paths for e-fuels during market ramp-up 28

3、4.1 Factors affecting the ramp-up of e-fuels volumes 28 4.2 Analysing the availability of e-fuels 30 4.3 Blending path of e-fuels with fossil fuels 31 5 Future prices for fuels during the e-fuels market ramp-up 33 5.1 Assumptions for the components of consumer prices 33 5.2 Development path of consu

4、mer prices under increasing e-fuels blending volumes 38 5.3 Effect of taxation on fuel prices 40 6 Conclusions and recommendations for the market ramp-up of e-fuels 42 Annex A Literature 44 Annex B Further results and assumptions 46 Annex C Data tables 56 SCENARIOS FOR THE MARKET RAMP-UP OF E-FUELS

5、IN ROAD TRANSPORT frontier economics 3 A third-party study,on which this study is partly based has been revised by its authors,resulting in changes to certain cost items used in this study.These changes have been incorporated into the updated version of this study.The key assumptions,methodology,con

6、clusions,and recommended actions remain unchanged from the first version dated 18 September 2024.This update further enhances the relevance and significance of the study.Study commissioned by:UNITI Bundesverband EnergieMittelstand e.V.Jgerstrasse 6 10117 Berlin www.uniti.de 030 755 414 300 Contact D