睿咨得能源：2026石油交易市场动态白皮书：需求萎缩已至 发生领域出人意料（英文版）（11页）.pdf

1、2026Gas and LNG Market Analytics5 March 2026The curve says run to refiners,the physical market says not so fast2Two weeks ago Rystad Energy argued that the curve was telling European refiners to run hard,while the physical market was telling them to stop.The arithmetic of buying replacement crude at

2、 Dated Brent more than$25 over front-month futures,layered on top of a freight bill that had grown to an additional$10-15 per barrel in landed cost,was wiping out every dollar of margin that the forward strip was implying.The rational response at the refinery level,the only financially defensible on

3、e,would prove catastrophic at the system level.The logic of that catastrophe is worth spelling out precisely because,despite last weeks retracement,it is now playing out in real time,and with flows out of the Hormuz Strait deteriorating rather than improving,the situation is likely to aggravate.The

4、supply picture has not stabilized;it has worsened,and the path back is considerably more complicated than markets appear to be pricing.April is on track to register a deeper supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz than March,with total MEG production tracking around 14.3 million barrels per d

5、ay(bpd),nearly 3.0 million bpd below March levels,and over 13.0 million bpd short of pre-war levels.The Yanbu,Fujairah and Ceyhan ports are loading at all-time highs,but at a combined 6.8 million bpd(of which only 4,2 million bpd are additional),it is not enough to cover the shortfall of more than 1

6、6.0 million bpd barrels that used to transit through the strait.Whitepaper:Oil Trading Market Update 21.04.2026Worsening supply picture3In the first five weeks of conflict,we saw an average of 2.4 million bpd of crude and condensates exiting the strait,mostly consisting of Iranian flows.The situatio