伍德麦肯兹：2025存续韧性：新能源格局下退煤进展分析报告（英文版）（12页）.pdf

1、Anthony Knutson,Global Head,Thermal Coal Markets David Brown,Director,Energy Transition Practice HORIZONSStaying power How new energy realities risk extending coals sunsetJuly 2025The world is facing a stark reality:coal-fired power could be a bigger part of the energy mix for longer than expected,s

2、cuppering efforts to meet climate change goals.New realities for energy markets in recent years have become more,not less,supportive of coal-fired power.Russias continued invasion of Ukraine and the turmoil in the Middle East have pushed energy security to the top of government agendas.Power demand

3、growth is surging around the globe.Large loads driven by the proliferation of data centres and energy-intensive manufacturing mean energy markets are pulling in all the power they can get,often regardless of carbon intensity.Whats more,coal technology has room to run with the prospect of lower-emiss

4、ion innovations that could make coal more palatable in a renewables-dominated world.Despite falling coal demand across Europe,the US,Japan and South Korea,the availability of cheap domestic coal resources continues to drive strong demand in the power sectors of many economies across South and Southe

5、ast Asia.China is the key driver of our outlook for peak coal as renewables,nuclear and hydro expand,but coal has proved resilient even as the countrys energy transition gathers pace.In this issue of Horizons,we explore how energy security,power demand and technology choices risk the greater use of

6、coal for longer.Anchored by a new high demand case for coal,developed specifically for this Horizons report,we examine the drivers of a higher outlook for coal and what this means for investors,technologies and global climate goals.2 How new energy realities risk extending coals sunsetFigure 1:Asia