Teneo：2026年全球航空业展望报告：伊朗冲突对客运航空的影响（英文版）（20页）.pdf

1、Aviation Outlook 2026:Impact of the Iran Conflict on Passenger AviationApril 2026Contents and AuthorsAviation Outlook 2026:Impact of the Iran Conflict on Passenger AviationGee LefevreGlobal Head of Consumer&EconomicsGee.LMatthew Seet Senior ConsultantMatthew.S01Executive Summary302Impact of the U.S.

2、Iran conflict5Airspace Restrictions7Operational Challenges8Fuel Price Increases903Industry Responses10Capacity11Routing12Airfare Dynamics13Margin Impact1504Strategic Opportunity17Matt PowneyAssociate DirectorMatt.PDaniel MartinkoAssociate DirectorDaniel.MDavid GardSenior Managing DirectorDavid.GExec

3、utive SummarySection 01Executive SummaryExecutive SummaryThe U.S.Iran conflict has created a severe and fast-moving shock for global aviation,with airspace closures,operational disruption and surging fuel prices combining to place immediate pressure on airlines.Airspace restrictions in the Middle Ea

4、st have disrupted a critical corridor linking Europe,Asia and Africa,forcing cancellations,delays and longer routes that increase fuel and crew costs.Gulf carriers are most exposed,but impacts are spreading globally through cancellations,reduced reliability and higher insurance costs.At the same tim

5、e,jet fuel prices have surged,driving margin pressure,especially for smaller and unhedged airlines,forcing companies to think carefully about when and how much to raise airfares and fees.More broadly,the current ceasefire is fragile but likely to extend.Negotiations are ongoing,and outcomes will be

6、driven by U.S.commitment,Iranian leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf alignment.Even as conditions stabilize,the effects of the disruption are likely to endure through elevated cost bases,reconfigured global networks and increasing divergence in airline performance.This report draws on Teneos