瑞士再保险（Swiss Re）：2026-2027年全球经济与保险市场展望报告（英文版）（18页）.pdf

1、Global economic and insurance market outlook 2026/27Media roundtableLondon,19 November 2025Your speakers todayDr Jrme HaegeliGroup Chief Economist&Head Swiss Re InstituteCharlotte MuellerChief Economist EuropeJason RichardsCEO Property&Casualty Reinsurance UK&IShifting sandssigma 5/2025:Global econo

2、mic and insurance market outlookDr Jrme Haegeli,Group Chief Economist&Head Swiss Re InstituteMedia Roundtable,London,19 November 2025Swiss Re Institute|November 20254Key numbersF 1 2Big pictureOutlookKey themesSwiss Re Institute|November 20255Global economic growth is solid but increasingly fragile,

3、with a wider dispersion of downside risksEconomic growth:Steady,but imbalanced.Industrial and fiscal policies support growth against tariff drag.K-shaped growth masks US vulnerabilities.Big pictureOutlookKey themesInflation:More structural in nature.Tariff impacts yet to peak in US.Next years euro a

4、rea disinflation wont be permanent,but China disinflation persists.Interest rates:Moving toward neutral with greater accommodation.Fiscal strains and higher risk premiums speak for steeper yield curves.Bottom line:Steady cyclical outlook faces fragility.Structural imbalances pose wider downside risk

5、s.Unprecedented debt levels fuel concerns of fiscal dominance and financial repression.Financial markets are failing to price downside risks from AI concentration,fragmentation and the demographic transition.Key regional forecastsSources:Bloomberg Consensus,Swiss Re InstituteNote:SRI forecasts as of

6、 October;Bloomberg Consensus as of 3 NovemberSwiss Re Institute|November 20256UK economic outlook:inflation remains elevated.The sizeable infrastructure investment gap will remain amid forthcoming fiscal consolidationBig pictureOutlookKey themesSwiss Re Institute|November 2025The US tariff changes h