睿咨得能源：2026全球能源宏观分析报告：当前供应过剩 未来格局分化（第二版）（英文版）（23页）.pdf

1、Global Energy Scenarios 2025House View ReportSecond EditionSurplus now.Divergence laterEnergy Macro AnalyticsFebruary 2026Second Edition(condensed)Rystad Energy House View Report Second editionThe global energy system is entering a two-phase cycle.In the near term,markets are defined by abundance.In

2、 the longer term,by tightening supply,rising marginal costs and geopolitical fragmentation.Over the next one to two years,markets remain comfortably supplied,barring major geopolitical disruptions.Higher OPEC output,LNG capacity additions led by the US,and solar PV oversupply in China keep prices co

3、ntained.This temporary glut suppresses investment signals and reinforces the perception of stability.Yet beneath this surface lies a structurally stronger trend.Oil illustrates the tension most clearly.Demand plateaus in the early 2030s on the back of road transport electrification led by China.Yet,

4、production decline rates remain relentless and will squeeze supply,with roughly$8 trillion in upstream investment required through 2040 to match demand.Nearly half of this will be directed toward shale and deepwater,both capital-intensive and technically complex resource types.As Tier-1 US shale inv

5、entory depletes and deepwater peaks in the early 2030s,the system shifts away from the US-led growth model of the past decade.Outside core OPEC producers,much of global supply trends downward.This leads us to one of our key theses in this House View report#2:A significant share of the 2030s output w

6、ill depend on yet-to-be-discovered resources,raising execution and cost risks.Once the current surplus phase fades,marginal costs rise structurally.Brent prices move above$100 per barrel in nominal terms($80 per barrel in real terms)by the late 2030s as higher-cost barrels set the curve.Gas follows