荷兰国际集团（ING）：2026年亚洲经济与金融市场展望报告：核心热点问题与解答（英文版）（34页）.pdf

1、Asia Outlook 2026 December 2025 The burning questions and answers for Asia in 2026 1 December 2025 Asia Outlook 2026 December 2025 THINK Economic and Financial Analysis Asia Outlook 2026 December 2025 2 How did Asias growth story unfold in 2025,and whats on the horizon for 2026?Overall,Asias GDP gro

2、wth was better than expected in 2025,supported by strong export and investment growth.Investment remained strong,driven by tech and government spending.As a result,tech export-driven countries such as Taiwan and Singapore exceeded consensus growth expectations by a wide margin.On the other hand,grow

3、th turned out weaker than expected in more domestically demand-driven economies like the Philippines and India.Household consumption across ASEAN was generally subdued despite muted inflation,as reflected in softening retail sales growth,especially in Thailand and the Philippines.Malaysia was a nota

4、ble exception and saw relatively robust consumption,driven by a strong labour market and fiscal stimulus.Meanwhile,Indonesia showed signs of wage growth deceleration,coinciding with a surge in labour force participation.Looking ahead to 2026,we expect GDP growth(excluding China)to slow to 3.4%,down

5、from 4%in the first half of 2025 and 3.6%for the full year.Large fiscal stimulus packages in Japan and South Korea are expected to offset the drag from weaker export growth,making these economies outliers with accelerating growth.In contrast,India and China the regions other two largest economies ar

6、e forecast to experience cyclical slowdowns.Investment growth in Asia is expected to remain concentrated in the technology sector The World Trade Organisation projects global trade volume growth to slow sharply,from 2.4%in 2025 to just 0.5%in 2026,as the impact of tariffs shifts into next year.This