星展银行（DBS)：分化之路：2026年全球经济展望与市场策略报告（英文版）（36页）.pdf

1、L o r e m I p s u mD B S G R O U P R E S E A R C H2 0 2 6 e c o n o m i c o u t l o o k a n d m a r k e t s t r a t e g yN o v e mb e r 2 0 2 5S e p a r a t e P a t h sRefer to important disclosures at the end of this report Group Research November 2025 DBS Economics Outlook and Market Strategy 2026

2、 Separate Paths Summary A year that began with unprecedented fear about global trade and multilateral rules-based order is ending with guarded relief.We expect the world to move on even as the US turns inward.We expect Asia and Asean growth to be only marginally lower in 2026.Food and fuel inflation

3、 are not sources of worry.Fiscal and monetary issues are worrisome largely with respect to the US.Having faced numerous stress tests since the pandemic governments and firms appear in better shape to deal with geoeconomic disruption Wei Liang CHANGEugene LEOWFX&Credit StrategistSenior Rates Strategi

4、stGlobalG3&ANathan CHOWTieying MA,CFASenior EconomistSenior EconomistChina,Hong Kong SAR Japan,South Korea,THan Teng CHUA,CFARadhika RAOSenior Economist Senior EconomistAseanEurozone,India,Indonesia Mo JI,Ph.D.Daisy SHARMAChief EconomistAnalystChina/HK SAR Data AByron LAMSamuel TSEEconomistSenior Ec

5、onomistHong Kong China,Hong Kong SARViolet LEEKee Yan YEOAssociateEquity AnalystPublicationsASEANEun Young LEEMoxy Yuhua YINGEquity AnalystEquity AHong Kong/CGroup ResearchEconomics&StrategyTaimur BAIG,Ph.D.Chief EconomistGPhilip WEESenior FX StrategistG 2026 Outlook:Separate Paths November 2025 Pag

6、e 2 Table of Contents Key charts.3 Overview:Separate Paths.4 US:No recession,but the best is behind.5 Eurozone:Steadying ship.7 Japan:Inside Takaichinomics.8 G3 Rates:Towards neutral.9 Currencies:A“lame duck”USD.10 Credit:Between tariffs and high valuations.11 Asean Equities:Local Catalysts.12 China