睿咨得能源：2026弥合即将到来的产能缺口：全球市场变革中海上油气作用分析白皮书（英文版）（25页）.pdf

1、Whitepaper:Bridging the looming production gap2Table of contents03The 2026 shift:From surplus to supply shock05The long-term reality:The 2050 production gap12Offshore in the global supply system16Offshore greenfield development activity and capital allocation20Global offshore growth:A regional view(

2、2026-2030)22Conclusion:The path to 2050Whitepaper:Bridging the looming production gapThe global energy market is going through a period of transition,and the events of 2026 have brought energy security back to the forefront.On the surface,the market still looks well supplied in the near term.But the

3、 ongoing escalation in the Middle East,along with disruptions to key maritime routes,has highlighted how fragile that balance really is.Global markets are seeing a disconnect:short-term supply looks comfortable,but the system is more exposed than it appears.Offshore oil production is already in mana

4、ged decline at around 6%per year,so the industry needs to add roughly 1.7 million barrels per day(bpd)of new capacity annually just to stand still.Given that deepwater projects take five to seven years to develop,todays investment is not creating oversupply it is simply avoiding a much sharper produ

5、ction drop in the early 2030s.In response,capital is shifting toward what could be described as more advantaged resources projects that combine lower breakeven costs with relatively lower carbon intensity.Under a base case outlook,the scale of what is needed remains substantial:around 540 billion ba

6、rrels of liquids must still be developed by 2050,alongside a widening gap in gas supply.At the same time,there are early signs that capital allocation may be heading toward more stable,competitive regions,but it is still too early to draw firm conclusions.Recent developments have highlighted risks i