标普全球（S&P Global）：2025散杂货与项目货航运市场展望报告（英文版）（16页）.pdf

1、Shipping Market OutlookA discussion between Mark Szakonyi and Susan OatwayApril 25,2025S&P Global23Seaborne dry cargo trade expected to grow by an average 1%per year to 2026 as forecast halved for next 18 months.2025 S&P Global S&P Global45Global GDP growth forecast for 2025 lowered from 2.5%to 2.2%

2、In October 2024 it was nearer 3%2025 S&P Global S&P Global6S&P Global789April TMI up 0.16%on March 2025 and 4.58%on April 2024;Performing better than expected S&P Global1011Scheduled Orderbook 2025 S&P Global S&P Global1213Future FleetMPV/HL fleet to expand at 1.7%per year to 2029,mainly due to heav

3、y-lift capable vessel deliveries 2025 S&P Global S&P Global14S&P Global15 2025 S&P Global Chinese firms(definitions provided by USTR)operating Chinese built vessels fee is$50 per net ton.Non-Chinese companies operating Chinese built vessels would pay$18 per net ton.In both cases,there is a stepped i

4、ncrease after 6 months and then annually:o$50,$80,$110,$140 and$18,$23,$28,$33 The fee is charged up to 5 times per year per vessel and is per string of port calls.Exemptions for non-Chinese operated Chinese built vesselsThe fees imposed in this Annex do not apply to U.S.government cargo.The fees im

5、posed in this Annex do not apply to the following vessels:o(i)U.S.-owned or U.S.-flagged vessels enrolled in the Voluntary Intermodal Sealift Agreement,the Maritime Security Program,the Tanker Security Program,or the Cable Security Program;o(ii)vessels arriving empty or in ballast;o(iii)vessels with

6、 a capacity of equal to or less than:4,000 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units,55,000 deadweight tons,or an individual bulk capacity of 80,000 deadweight tons;o(iv)vessels entering a U.S.port in the continental United States from a voyage of less than 2,000 nautical