OCO Global：2026年全球经济回顾与展望报告（英文版）（23页）.pdf

1、2026Global OutlookEconomic Review and OutlookOCO GLOBAL OUTLOOK 20262The global economy has performed better than predicted in 2025 and forecasts for growth in 2026 have edged higher as the year progressed.Trade continues to grow,with the services sector a driving force,but foreign direct investment

2、 declined in 2025 amid increased investor uncertainty.The current trajectoryof FDI&Trade3.2%4.7%8.9%-12%GLOBAL GDP(2025)GLOBAL TRADE(GOODS)GLOBAL TRADE(SERVICES)GLOBAL FDISources:IMF(2025)World Economic Outlook(GDP Oct),UNCTAD(2025)Global Trade Update(Trade,q2 2024-q2 2025),FT Locations(2025)fDiMark

3、ets database(FDI,Sept 2024-Sept 2025)OCO GLOBAL OUTLOOK 20263Review:The global economy has not succumbed to protectionism Despite these obstacles,there are several reasons for optimism in 2026.New trade agreements are providing companies with greater certainty and predictability,while financial cond

4、itions have become more supportive of investment as central banks have followed a general pattern of gradually reducing interest rates.Advances in artificial intelligence are driving innovation across sectors,and emerging technologies and new materials offer the potential to transform economies in t

5、he years ahead.At a sectoral level,this is a period of transition.Trade dependent manufacturing and some export-oriented regions will remain vulnerable to trade disruption,while low-productivity services such as hospitality will struggle to pass on costs or adopt new technology.However,for other sec

6、tors this is a time to grow,with AI expected to provide a technological boost to high-productivity sectors such as pharmaceuticals,financial services,and advanced manufacturing.Heading into 2026,we expect to see a period of steady growth.Firms are learning to navigate the new trade landscape,a trade