安联（Allianz）：2026–2027年全球破产展望报告：警惕中东危机的连锁影响（英文版）（30页）.pdf

1、Allianz Research22 April 2026Global Insolvency Outlook:Brace for Middle East spillovers Allianz Research2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-5 Executive SummaryPage 10-13Middle-East spillovers to postpone the plateau in global insolvencies to 2027Page 14-16 What could go wrong?Key downside risks to the i

2、nsolvency outlookPage 6-9A sustained global increase in 2025Page 17-25 Regional outlooksPage 26 Statistical Appendix22 April 2026 Spillovers from the Middle East crisis will make 2026 the fifth consecutive year of rising global business insolvencies.The ripple effects of lower growth and higher infl

3、ation from the Middle East will account for one-third of this increase.The immediate implications for energy markets,shipping costs and supply chains,as well as second-round effects via inflation,financial conditions and the hit to confidence,have pushed up our forecasts to+6%in 2026 for our Global

4、Insolvency Index (+2pps compared to what was expected before the conflict),with the expected plateau delayed to 2027.This comes after a+6%increase in 2025(+10%in Germany,+4%in France,+7%in the US,+7%in China,+3%in Japan)and hinges on a progressive normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormu

5、z by June.At a global level,the direct toll from the Middle East represents+7,000 additional cases for 2026 and+7,900 for 2027,including+700 and+200 cases respectively for the US,and+3,750 and+3,600 respectively for Western Europe,while they were already expected to rise by+1,400 cases in 2026 and t

6、o fall by-11,000 in 2027.Asia will remain the largest contributor,with Chinas insolvencies projected to rise by+9%in 2026 and+5%in 2027 due to ongoing structural challenges.North America will see contrasting trends,with the US extending its rebound(+9%in 2026)while Canada continues its decline(-4%).