艾睿铂（AlixPartners）：2025年集装箱航运展望报告：应对多重挑战（英文版）（13页）.pdf

1、FEBRUARY 20252025 CONTAINER SHIPPING OUTLOOK Navigating the crosscurrentsAlixPartners 2025 Container Shipping Outlook:Navigating the crosscurrents2Never make predictions,especially about the future.YOGI BERRAAlixPartners 2025 Container Shipping Outlook:Navigating the crosscurrents2AlixPartners 2025

2、Container Shipping Outlook:Navigating the crosscurrents3Well,that wasunexpected.With some 3 million 20-foot-equivalent units(TEU)in new capacity poised to come online in 2024,after 3 years of controlled capital spending,carriers went into the year anticipating a reversion to the chronic overcapacity

3、 that has long weighed on the industrys profitability.Cumulative percentage change and its breakdown,November 2023June 2024FIGURE 1:CHINA CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX:IMPACT OF PANAMACANAL AND RED SEA DISRUPTIONSSource:UN Trade and Development(UNCTAD)calculations,based on data provided by Clarksons R

4、esearch,Shipping Intelligence Network and Maritech Services Limited,Sea.Note:Cumulative changes from October 2023.Seasonally adjusted.The sum of the four presented components does not fully add up to the combined impact because other logistics shock is not included in the figure.See the Review of Ma

5、ritime Transport 2024 technical note 1,for the estimation methodology.-50050100150200Nov-23DecJan-24FebMarAprMayJunPanama Canal disruptionContainer shipping demand changeContainer ship supply changeRed Sea disruptionBut market fundamentals changed drastically in November 2023,when Houthi rebels in Y

6、emen launched a campaign of attacks on Red Sea shipping.Virtually overnight,7-8%of global capacity was diverted as Red Sea cargoes were rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope.The move added two weeks to transit times along the Far East-Europe lane and resulted in a 40%increase in emissions.Schedule r