邓白氏（Dun & Bradstreet）：2026年第二季度全球经济展望报告（英文版）（17页）.pdf

1、 Public Quarterly Global Economic Outlook:Q2 2026 Middle East Conflict Transmits Global Shock Global growth is slowing and the balance of risks has shifted further to the downside.The Iran conflict is increasingly acting as a global supply and confidence shock.The International Energy Agency(IEA)des

2、cribes the current conditions as the largest oil supply disruption on record,with Hormuz flows reduced to a trickle and the knockon effects spreading through refined fuels and liquefied natural gas(LNG).At the same time,aviation disruption and elevated risk premia are weakening services activity and

3、 adding uncertainty to investment decisions.A large share of global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz,so shipping disruptions and insurance constraints are feeding directly into higher landed costs,supply chain delays,and greater output risk for energyintensive manufacturing.The policy mix i

4、s,therefore,becoming more difficult:growth support is needed,but renewed costpush inflation(energy,freight,and eventually food inputs)limits room for faster monetary easing.Regional Growth:Exposed to Conflict Spillovers Sources:Haver Analytics,Dun&Bradstreet.3.73.63.81.92.72.72.31.71.11.54.13.62.23.

5、12.72.02.21.71.51.54.03.92.31.42.61.92.00.61.41.9Real GDP Growth(%)202420252026 Public Risk Mitigation Priorities for Businesses Build a“Plan B route”for critical lanes(air and sea):Pre-agree alternatives with forwarders and lock in decision rules(when to reroute,when to pause).Use Dun&Bradstreet Co

6、untry Insight Solutions to help track corridor-linked shifts in country risk ratings and business continuity signals,and D&B Shipping Insights to monitor shipment flows,carrier/port exposure,and early disruption signals across maritime routes.Map supplier exposure beyond tier 1 for Gulf/Levant touch