美国农业信贷管理局（FCA）：2026美国经济状况与农业信贷系统状况及表现季度报告（英文版）（25页）.pdf

1、Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System Condition and PerformanceApril 9,2026Rebecca Kaiser Senior EconomistOffice of Data Analytics and EconomicsJohn Stephens Supervisory Examiner Office of Examination2Topics for Open SessionEconomic Conditions Affecting the Farm Credit Syste

2、mMacroeconomic updateFarm income trendsCrop and livestock profitabilityFarm Credit System Condition and PerformanceSystem growth and loan portfolioEarnings and capitalFinancial Institution Rating System(FIRS)3Macro indicators show potential challenges ahead PCE inflation stability will be tested wit

3、h recent volatility in energy markets.Job market shows signs of softening with recent revisions.Real GDP growth slowed to 0.7%in Q4 2025 due to a prolonged government shutdown and reduced exports.Changes to the federal funds rate have been paused.Sources:Bureau of Labor Statistics;Board of Governors

4、 of the Federal Reserve System0%1%2%3%4%5%6%Jan-21Jan-23Jan-25Core PCE IndexEffective Federal Funds Rate4Historical perspectives on government debtGovernment spending increased sharply in response to recessions in 2008-2009 and 2020.The national debt recently hit$39 trillion.Debt to GDP ratio has be

5、en relatively stable for the past 5 years,but the interest on debt to GDP ratio has been increasing.Private debt as a percentage of GDP has been declining since 2020.Sources:U.S.Office of Management and Budget;Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis;U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis;Board of Governors of the

6、 Federal Reserve System0%1%2%3%4%5%0%50%100%150%20052010201520202025National Debt to GDPInterest on Debt to GDP5Source:USDA ERS Farm Income and Wealth StatisticsReal farm income expected to be steady$-$50$100$150$200$250$300$3502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F2026FMillionsReal Cash Rece