安联保险集团（Allianz）：2026中东危机对电动汽车产业发展的加速作用分析报告（英文版）（13页）.pdf

1、1 In Summary An electric tilt boosted by energy volatility.After a bruising 2025,Q1 2026 data reveal a striking reversal.BEV market share hit 19%EU-wide(+4pps vs;Q1 2025)and surged to 28%in France and 23%in Germany.The 30%oil spike fueled by Middle East tensions has sent pump prices back above EUR 2

2、.0/L,reviving the cost-of-ownership debate and accelerating a shift that was already structurally underway.This is notably thanks to price compression over other powertrain models on primary markets and rising supply on second-hand markets.Consumers are more sensitive than ever before to energy cost

3、s.Fuel costs are hitting European households already squeezed by a post-Covid cost spiral across all car-related services with repair,maintenance and parts costs up between 20-30%since 2021,10%higher than the increase in average disposable income.Car-usage costs absorb 78%of disposable income on ave

4、rage in France and Germany but rise to 11%for lowest-income quintiles during periods of volatility(e.g.2022),making fuel-consumption costs a critical issue for low-income households.Currently,switching to BEVs would offer material energy consumption savings equiv.to a 45%purchasing-power gain per ca

5、pita on average in Western Europe with an energy-cost differential range estimated at 5-7x regardless of price volatility.But turning current momentum into a durable energy shift will require firing on all four policy cylinders in parallel:increasing local battery production,building sufficient grid

6、 infrastructure implementing effective carbon pricing and consistent subsidies.While there have been positive signs of structural progress(e.g.average battery range crossing 500km psychological barrier,faster charging times),Europe remains exposed to Chinas technological dominance on batteries and p