国际清算银行：2026季度回顾：国际银行业与金融市场发展报告（3月版）（英文版）（106页）.pdf

1、BIS Quarterly ReviewMarch 2026International banking and financial market developments BIS Quarterly Review Monetary and Economic Department Editorial Committee:Gaston Gelos Benot Mojon Daniel Rees Andreas Schrimpf Frank Smets Hyun Song Shin General queries concerning this commentary should be addres

2、sed to Andreas Schrimpf(tel+41 61 280 8942,e-mail:andreas.schrimpfbis.org),queries concerning specific parts to the authors,whose details appear at the head of each section.This publication is available on the BIS website(https:/www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2603.htm).Bank for International Settlement

3、s 2026.All rights reserved.Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated.ISBN 978-92-9259-934-8(online)ISSN 1683-0121(online)BIS Quarterly Review,March 2026 iii BIS Quarterly Review March 2026 International banking and financial market developments Markets recalibrate

4、amid shifting currents.1 Cross-currents:selective risk-taking collides with geopolitical tensions.2 Box A:Financing the AI infrastructure boom:on-and offbalance sheet borrowing .3 Box B:Private credits software lending meets AI disruption.6 Box C:Boom and bust of the recent silver and gold rush:the

5、role of leveraged retail investors.8 Sovereign bond markets diverged amid changing monetary and fiscal policy outlook.11 Global repositioning moves EME assets.12 Endnotes.15 Articles Evolving approaches to monetary policy communication in the face of uncertainty:fan charts,scenarios and guidance.17

6、Sarah Bell,Matthieu Chavaz,Boris Hofmann,Daniel Rees and Matthias Rottner Communicating under uncertainty:a simple taxonomy.19 Communicating uncertainty around the economic outlook.21 Communicating the policy response.25 Conclusion.28 Endnotes.28 References.29 The rise and risks of synthetic risk tr