碳排放和气候不确定性下的森林资产估值：全球趋势及澳大利亚和新西兰的相关观察.pdf

1、Valuing forestry assets under climate and carbon uncertaintyNick PingManaging Director and Deputy Chief Investment OfficerManulife Investment Management,TimberlandFor Institutional/Investment Professional Use Only.Not for distribution to the public.5328233For Institutional/Investment Professional Us

2、e Only.Not for distribution to the public.Transaction evidence points to steady downward trend in discount rates and increased dispersion2-0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.4020052007201020132015201820212024IndexLower rates(higher values)do not necessarily reflect a shift in return expectations or per

3、ceived riskSource:1.Manulife Investment Management Research,March 2026,2.Manulife Investment Management and Bruce Manley0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.4020042006200820102012201420162018202020222024Index of implied discount rates from transactions in the US South1 2005=1.00Index of implied discount ra

4、tes from transactions in Australia and New Zealand2 2005=1.00For Institutional/Investment Professional Use Only.Not for distribution to the public.Timberland discount rates hold while yields for other assets rise3Real Timberland Discount Rates,Cash Yields for Government Bonds,US Annual Crops&US Comm

5、ercial Real EstateSources:Macrobond as of January 2026,NCREIF,as of January 2026.Note:NCREIF Farmland as of January 2026.CRE October 2026;TL Surveys MBG,January 2026-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%US 10YTBAnnual Crop YieldsUS 10Y TIPSCRE YieldsAUS 10YBNZ 10YBTL DR Survey(Real)For Institutional/Investment Profession

6、al Use Only.Not for distribution to the public.Steady US timberland returns keep pace with commercial real estate4050100150200250300350400200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025US TimberlandCore CommercialSource:NCREIF,Manulife IM Research,as of January 2