保德信房地产：2026全球宏观经济与金融市场展望及投资建议报告（英文版）（22页）.pdf

1、GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK PGIM 12026PGIM is the principal asset management business of Prudential Financial,Inc.and a trading name of PGIM,Inc.and its global subsidiaries and affiliates.Prudential Financial,Inc.of the U.S.is not affiliated with Prudential plc,incorporated in the United Kingdom or with P

2、rudential Assurance Company,a subsidiary of M&G plc,incorporated in the United Kingdom.All investments involve risk,including the possible loss of capital.GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK PGIM 2KEY THEMES Our outlook assesses the impact of key themes across global economies and markets in 2026:The Era of Fisca

3、l Dominanceand the End of Central Bank InnocenceGeopolitical rivalry is expensive.Record defense budgets,expanding industrial policy,and rising populism will compel major economies to run historically high deficits.Accompanying demands for low monetary policy rates erode central banks inflation-figh

4、ting credibility.Repriced term premia will increasingly determine the level of long-term rates.Carry On:Lean Into Structural GrowthSteeper yield curves,stretched market valuations,and economies reconfigured for structural growth warrant diversified portfolios constructed for carry and income.Product

5、ivity Boost ReduxThe$7 trillion global AI buildout threatens near-term over-investment risks.Yet,historical precedent suggests it will ultimately seed a productivity boost that determines growth trajectories,debt dynamics,and the future winners and losers across global industries and corporations.Th

6、e Convergence of Public and Private MarketsAs the delineation between public and private markets fades,expanding sources of capital can support borrowers credit profiles.As risk and return profiles converge,investors will likely benefit from assessing relative value across the public and private cre