贝莱德：2026年第二季度全球经济与金融市场展望报告（英文版）（28页）.pdf

1、2026 Global OutlookQ2 updateApril 2026BlackRockCAPITAL AT RISK.INVESTMENTS CAN RISE OR FALL IN VALUE.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,SELECT COUNTRIES IN EUROPE(SEE THE FULL DISCLOSURE),ISRAEL,SOUTH AFRICA,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,AND Q

2、UALIFIED INVESTORS AND CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.BlackRockInvestmentInstituteBII0426-5421716-EXP0427-1/28Mega forces are clashing,rewiring economies and marketsThe Middle East conflict amplifies the“world shaped by supply,”where supply constraints drive economic outcomes.Yet AI-driven inn

3、ovation is also at play,making a potential breakout from 2%growth conceivable for the first time.2CAPITAL AT RISK.INVESTMENTS CAN RISE OR FALL IN VALUE.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CANADA,LATIN AMERICA,SELECT COUNTRIES IN EUROPE(SEE THE FULL DISCLOSURE),ISRAEL,SOUTH AFRICA,HONG KONG,SINGAPORE

4、 AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.Share of energy imported via the Strait of HormuzU.S.GDP per capita and long-term trend,1870-2024Source:BlackRock Investment Institute and Macrohistory Database,December 2025.Note:Historica

5、l data compiled by scar Jord,Moritz Schularick,and Alan M.Taylor.2017.Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts.In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016,volume 31,edited by Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan A.Parker.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.7.58.08.59.09.510.010.518701890191019301950

6、197019902010Log scaleHistoric1.9%growth trendSource:BlackRock Investment Institute with data from World Bank,International Energy Agency(IEA),U.S.Energy Information Administration,International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers(GIIGNL),Organization of the Petroleum Exporting(OPEC)and commerci