全球贸易并未消亡.pdf

1、March 2026Global Trade Isnt DeadJohn C.Baize and AssociatesGlobal Demand Growth For Corn,Cotton,Soybeans,Rice and Wheat1990/91-2024/25 and USDA Forecast for 2025/26Soybeans Up 305%Corn Up 164%,Wheat Up Only by 56%22%Of all calories will cross international borders in the next decade5%Annual GDP grow

2、th across low-income countries,driving demandMillion global population growth by 2034/35.Half of this growth will be in Africa634OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034 USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034 Agricultural Trade Projectionsthrough 2034Global Product

3、ion/Consumption of Soy0501001502002503003504004502011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26MMTProductionConsumption2010/11 2023/24 and USDA Forecast for 2024/25 and 2025/26U.S.Soybean Production2000/01 2025/2602040608010012

4、01402000/012002/032004/052006/072008/092010/112012/132014/152016/172018/192020/212022/232024/25MMTUSAAgricultures Resiliency in ConflictInitial ShockPrice AdjustmentsSupply Re-RoutingRecoveryWhen Disruption Happens Russia invades UkrainePrices spikedAdaptationSupply StabilizesBlack Sea Region 2022-W

5、heatInitial ShockPrice AdjustmentSupply Re-RouteRecoveryInitial ShockPrice AdjustmentsSupply Re-RoutingRecoveryWhen Disruption Happens Patterns within Disruption Agriculture is highly resilientLogistics matter as much as productionPrice signals accelerate recoveryRebounds dont always mean“return to

6、normal”Positioning Your Products ResiliencyEXPORTERALLIEDJim Traub Trading2026 MembersFOUNDERSAs of 2/24/26U.S.Soy CommitmentConsistent Supply of High Quality,Sustainable Soybeans and Soy ProductsHigh Quality In,High Quality OutHigh Quality ProteinSkin Benefit