20260414-1220-NickyShiels-1-230.pdf

1、Gold After$4,000:Floors,Crowding&the CB QuestionViews Through A Trade House LensMKS PAMPApril 2026Geo-Macro:Debase,Diversify,Dedollarize1.2New York 2026 New York 2026 3The Secular Gold Trade Is Driven by the Three“Ds”:Dedollarise,Debase,Diversify#1)World order and geopolitics the dedollarisation tra

2、de#2)Macroeconomic and policy dynamics the debasement trade#3)Markets the diversification tradeNew York 2026 4Rebalancing the World Order:From U.S.Hegemony to MultipolarityAny rebalancing whether of the world order,monetary systems,or policy frameworks is inherently volatile.Gold is pricing in this

3、structural transition away from U.S.hegemony and peak globalisation.New York 2026 5The Petrodollar Loop:A Virtuous Circle,Now Pressure-TestedPETRO$Oil Pricedin USDGulf DollarSurplusesRecycled intoUS TreasuriesUS SecurityGuaranteesBREAKINGThe Virtuous Loop(1974 Present)Oil priced in USD;Gulf surpluse

4、s parked in Treasuries US provides security guarantees in return Suppressed yields,funded deficits,anchored USD reserve status for 50 yrsWhy the Loop Is Breaking Gulf recycling shifting:Treasuries equities(petro-equities),tech,non-USD assets,Gold Flows around the petrodollar are shrinking=flows arou

5、nd its hedge(Gold)are too!USD FX reserve share at 57%lowest since 1995(vs 72%peak)Yuan-settled energy trades accelerating;Hormuz tolls in CNY$39T US debt load;marginal buyer retreating higher funding costsSource:Bloomberg Opinion,Aaron Brown(Apr 6,2026)New York 2026 6The Entrenched 2025 Debasement T

6、rade Continues In 2026The Sell USA theme on holdU.S.economy to toggle between energy-led inflation and AI-led disinflationThe war strengthens the US$s/t position,onlyThe world remains structurally short real physical assets given rising stagflationary pressures.71990s2026 Oil Shocks:WTI Absorbs All