三菱日联银行（MUFG）：2026年第一季度全球经济展望报告（英文版）（17页）.pdf

1、A member of MUFG,a global financial groupMarch 11,2026(Original Japanese version released February 27,2026)Global Economic OutlookQ1 2026Global summary2The global economy has shown signs of resilience as it enters a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.Ahead of the US-Israel attacks on Iran

2、,we revised our global growth forecasts for 2026 slightly higher.The US sees the largest upgrade,as wealth effects and robust AI-driven capital investment offset concerns around a softer labor market.Elsewhere,Germanys fiscal boost is set to cushion European activity.In Japan,wage gains and investme

3、nt targeted at structural issues(e.g.,labor shortages and digitization)have helped offset weak external demand.In China,headwinds from weak household sentiment and real estate concerns persist,but policy support and strategic investment in certain sectors continue to provide a backstop.Strong semi-c

4、onductor demand continues to support Asian exports more broadly.Developments in the Middle East now pose clear stagflationary risks to the outlook.Higher energy costs and wider supply-chain disruption,if sustained,would push up prices and weigh on growth.Uncertainty is extremely elevated,but we judg

5、e that our forecasts would remain broadly valid if there is de-escalation in the weeks ahead.With attention now firmly on energy risks,underlying inflation dynamics vary across regions.In the US,tariff pass-through has kept goods prices firm,and we assume core PCE rates will decline only gradually,r

6、emaining above 2%.Japans inflation outlook is stabilizing near the BoJs target,supported by fiscal measures and an improving wage environment.In Europe,euro area headline inflation has been well-behaved and,provided there is swift de-escalation in the Middle East,could still undershoot the ECBs targ