1、U.S.Immigration Policies and Their Impact on the Labor Market APPCAST WHITEPAPERAPPCAST WHITEPAPERPowered byTrump Policies Chilling Effect on Immigration,and What it Means for the Labor Market04 PART#1 PART#1 Modeling the Impact of Immigration PolicyPART#2PART#210 15 The Regional Impact of Immigrati

2、on Policies:Southern HarmPART#3PART#3Sector by Sector:Mapping the Labor Fallout of Trumps Immigration Agenda PART#4PART#423 Table of ContentsU.S.IMMIGRATION POLICIES AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE LABOR MARKET|229 What does it all mean for recruiters?CONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONKey Takeaways One immediate impact o

3、f the U.S.immigration policies is the sharp decline in unauthorized immigration:Border crossings are down 90%from peak 2023 levels.While capacity is constrained by logistical and legal barriers,we expect the number of deportations to hit half a million annually soon.The labor force is estimated to s

4、hrink by 640,000 to 960,000 workers annually relative to the previous trend.Restrictive immigration policies will lead to wage gains for non-college-educated workers of about 6 to 8%by 2030,with little benefit to college-educated workers.However,U.S.GDP trend growth might fall from 2%to 1.5%,amounti

5、ng to thousands of dollars in lost income per household.The inflationary pressure from wage gains will prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer,causing an additional drag on GDP and employment States like Texas,Florida,and California will suffer most due to their heavy reliance on imm

6、igrant labor.Economic growth in high-migration states may fall by 0.5 to 1 percentage point annually,reducing their role as national job creation engines.Industries most exposed to immigration cuts include construction(30%foreign-born),hospitality,transportation,and agriculture(20%each).Manual and l