浩华：2025澳大利亚首都及重点城市酒店市场展望与洞察报告（12月版）（英文版）（51页）.pdf

1、DECEMBER QUARTER 2025 EDITIONAustraliaCapital City&Key MarketsHotel Market Outlook&InsightsHorwath HTL MethodologyHotel Market Outlook 2026 Horwath HTLRolling 12-Month GDP and International Tourism Arrivals,Australia December 2025Macroeconomic and Tourism ContextSource:Deloitte Access Economic Busin

2、ess Outlook December 25 Edition,TRA,Horwath HTLThe Deloitte Access Economics Australian Business Outlook forecasts GDP growth in CY 2026 to show improvement,increasing to 2.1%(from the forecast 1.9%in CY 2025).The unemployment rate is expected to increase to an average of 4.4%(from 4.2%in CY 2025),w

3、hile the population is forecast to expand by 1.4%and an increase of 1.4%to join the labor force in CY 2026).2026 Horwath HTL-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4Mar-19Jun-19Sep-19Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24Jun-24Sep-24Dec-24Mar-

4、25Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25Mar-26Jun-26Sep-26Dec-26Mar-27Jun-27Sep-27Dec-27Mar-28Jun-28Sep-28Dec-28Mar-29Jun-29Sep-29Dec-29Mar-30Jun-30Sep-30Dec-30Indexed to 2019(2019 Level=1)GDP(DAE Dec 25)ITA(TRA Nov 25,HHTL Adjusted)2019 LevelYTD November 25,short term international visitor arrivals sit at 94.2%of 2019

5、 volumes and are not expected to return to pre-COVID levels until 2027,though Y-o-Y growth YTD has been strong at 7.9%.The forecasted fastest growing industries in CY 2026 include Information,Media and Telecommunications(4.1%),Health Care and Social Assistance(3.7%)and Transport,Postal and Warehousi

6、ng(3.4%).The outlook for growth for Accommodation and Food Services in CY 2026 has decreased to 2.0%forecast by DAE in December 2025,from forecast of 2.4%for CY 2025.Deloitte Access Economics expects the Australian economy to grow by 2.1%in the 2026 calendar year,underpinned by household spending an