美国能源信息署（EIA）：2026年度美国能源展望报告（英文版）（33页）.pdf

1、April 2026AnnualEnergy OutlookU.S.Energy Information Administration|AEO2026 Narrative i The U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA),the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S.Department of Energy(DOE),prepared this report.By law,our data,analyses,and forecasts are independent of approva

2、l by any other officer or employee of the U.S.Government.The views in this report do not represent those of DOE or any other federal agencies.April 2026 U.S.Energy Information Administration|AEO2026 Narrative ii Table of Contents Administrators Foreword.1 Introduction.2 National Energy Modeling Syst

3、em(NEMS).3 Modeled Cases.4 Population,demographics,and productivity shape long-term economic projections.7 Technology drives efficient consumption of energy through 2050,in some cases regardless of policy.8 Transportation.9 Transportation sector trending both higher tech and less energy intensive.10

4、 Policy assumptions determine pace of shifting vehicle technology adoption,especially in freight.11 Alternative policy futures suggest increased liquids consumption filters throughout the energy economy.12 Electricity.13 Data centers bolster electricity demand growth.14 Timing of electricity demand

5、affects power sector costs.15 The electricity generation mix depends on resource availability and market conditions.16 Electricity capacity decisions are affected by policy and regulations.17 Renewables additions vary by region.18 Future U.S.coal demand largely depends on electric sector policies,ex

6、ports may grow.19 Oil and natural gas.20 Prime acreage and technological advancements in resource recovery are key factors in future U.S.oil production.21 Projections suggest narrow band of refinery throughput amid variable domestic use of petroleum products 22 Liquids exports remain historically el