毕马威：2026年第一季度中国经济观察报告（英文版）（22页）.pdf

1、China EconomicMonitorIssue:2026 Q1April 2026 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau SAR partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong SAR partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of inde

2、pendent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.2Key takeawaysIn 2025,Chinas economy recorded total output of RMB 140 trillion,with real GDP growth of 5.0%,meeting the official growth target for the year.However,growt

3、h momentum moderated in Q4,as real GDP grew by 4.5%year-on-year(YoY),down 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter.External demand became the primary driver of growth in Q4,while consumption and investment remained subdued,continuing the weakness seen in Q3.On the consumption side,total retai

4、l sales of consumer goods increased 3.7%YoY in 2025,a modest 0.2 percentage-point improvement from 2024.Yet,this resilience faded in the final quarter,with retail sales declining by 1.8 percentage points YoY the first quarterly contraction since 2023.This mainly reflected the diminishing impact of t

5、he trade-in program combined with a high base effect from the same period in 2024.Chinas exports remained resilient.In 2025,exports grew by 5.5%YoY,while Chinas trade surplus approached USD 1.2 trillion,a record high that provided important support for overall growth.Despite continued drag from the

6、U.S.market,China expanded trade with ASEAN,Africa,Latin America,India,GCC countries,and the five Central Asian economies,which together contributed around 5 percentage points to export growth.Meanwhile,surging global demand for artificial intelligence(AI)computing power and the accelerating transiti