安永（EY）：2026欧洲消费与零售行业展望报告（英文版）（52页）.pdf

1、EY Economic Analysis TeamConsumer&Retail OutlookInsights from the European Economic OutlookMarch 2026TopicsTopics2Executive summaryEconomic activity and consumer spending in recent quartersShort-term drivers of economic and consumer outlookStructural drivers of economic and consumer outlookEconomic

2、and consumer outlook Page35223138Executive summaryExecutive summary3Scope and updated baseline assumptionsScope and updated baseline assumptionsThis report focuses on household consumption and the implications for the retail sector,drawing on the broader EY European Economic Outlook published in ear

3、ly March2026,including the update of macroeconomic assumptions and forecasts following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.The updated baseline scenario assumes a temporary energy shock,with a limited but noticeable drag on European economic activity.In this scenario,the conflict is ex

4、pected to raise euro area inflation by around 0.5 pp in 2026 and reduce the level of GDP by around 0.2%.As a result,projected euro area GDP growth in 2026 has been revised down from 1.3%to 1.0%,partly reflecting a downward revision related to Ireland,with only limited changes to the outlook in subse

5、quent years.At the same time,inflation is expected to remain slightly above target in 2026(averaging 2.4%),before falling below 2%in 2027.However,recent escalations suggest that even a swift end to the conflict may not allow a rapid return to pre-conflict production levels,particularly for natural g

6、as,implying structurally higher European gas prices over the medium term and more adverse economic effects than included in the current baseline.To capture risks beyond the baseline,we also present an additional,more severe downside scenario involving a prolonged Middle East conflict.Recent economic