联合国贸发会议：2026霍尔木兹海峡航运中断对全球贸易与发展的影响研究报告（英文版）（18页）.pdf

1、Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Implications for Global Trade and DevelopmentUNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT10 March 2026 2IntroductionThe Strait of Hormuz is one of the worlds most critical maritime chokepoints,carrying around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and significant v

2、olumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers.The ongoing military escalation in the region has disrupted shipping flows through this narrow passage.The resulting ripple effects go far beyond the region,affecting energy markets,maritime transport and global supply chains.These developments raise c

3、oncerns for global trade and development prospects.Oil markets have reacted quickly,with Brent crude prices now rising above US$90 per barrel.Higher energy,fertilizer and transport costs including freight rates,bunker fuel prices and insurance premiums may increase food costs and intensify cost-of-l

4、iving pressures,particularly for the most vulnerable.Similar repercussions were observed during recent global shocks,including the COVID-19 pandemic and at the beginning of the war in Ukraine,which showed how disruptions in energy,transport and agricultural inputs can propagate across interconnected

5、 markets.The current shock comes at a time when many developing economies struggle to service their debt,face a tightening of fiscal space and limited capacity to absorb new price shocks.While the overall global economic impacts will depend on the duration and scale of the disruption,the situation h

6、ighlights the importance of continued monitoring,particularly implications for vulnerable economies.3The Strait of Hormuz is a vital passage for world trade.Share of global seaborne trade volume passing through the Strait of Hormuz,one week prior to the conflict,per centSource:UN Trade and Developme