麦肯锡:2026地缘政治与全球贸易格局:关税冲击、AI浪潮与重塑全球贸易的涟漪效应研究报告(英文版)(59页).pdf

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麦肯锡:2026地缘政治与全球贸易格局:关税冲击、AI浪潮与重塑全球贸易的涟漪效应研究报告(英文版)(59页).pdf

1、March 2026Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade:2026 updateTariff splashes,AI waves,and the ripples reshaping global tradeAuthorsTiago DevesaJeongmin SeongOlivia WhiteNick LeungCamillo LamannaJoaqun RebledCopyright 2026 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Cover image:Slipping earth.Jorg Greu

2、el/Getty ImagesConfidential and proprietary.Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey&Company is strictly prohibited.McKinsey Global InstituteThe McKinsey Global Institute was established in 1990.Our mission is to provide a fact base to aid decision making on the economic and

3、business issues most critical to the worlds companies and policy leaders.We benefit from the full range of McKinseys regional,sectoral,and functional knowledge,skills,and expertise,but editorial direction and decisions are solely the responsibility of MGI directors and partners.Our research is curre

4、ntly grouped into five major themes:Productivity and prosperity:Creating and harnessing the worlds assets most productively Resources of the world:Building,powering,and feeding the world sustainably Human potential:Maximizing and achieving the potential of human talent Global connections:Exploring h

5、ow flows of goods,services,people,capital,and ideas shapeeconomies Technologies and markets of the future:Discussing the next big arenas of value and competition We aim for independent and fact-based research.None of our work is commissioned or funded by any business,government,or other institution;

6、we share our results publicly free of charge;and we are entirely funded by the partners of McKinsey.While we engage multiple distinguished external advisers to contribute to our work,the analyses presented in our publications are MGIs alone,and any errors are our own.You can find out more about MGI

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