1、ECONOMIC AND STEEL MARKET OUTLOOK20262027March 2026FIRST QUARTER REPORTData up to,and including,third quarter 20252EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEU steel demand is showing signs of stabilisation after three consecutive years of contraction,but the recovery remains modest and uncertain.Even with expected growth i

2、n 20252027,consumption levels will remain well below pre-pandemic levels.At the same time,import penetration has reached record highs,underscoring the structural pressures facing the European steel market.RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOKContrary to earlier expectations of a further marginal decline,t

3、he industrial outlook has slightly improved in 2025 and steel demand has shown signs of stabilisation,particularly in the second half of the year.However,this largely reflects comparison with very weak volumes recorded in the second half of 2024.As a result,apparent steel consumption in 2025 is expe

4、cted to rebound by+2.4%compared with a-0.2%decline in the previous outlook.This will be driven by stronger-than-expected growth in some national markets,which will partly offset the impact of trade disruptions including those caused by the U.S.tariffs.On the supply side,EU crude steel production fel

5、l to a new record low in 2025,reaching 125.8 million tonnes compared with 130 million tonnes in 2024,a year-on-year decline of around 3%.economic and steel market outlook 2026-2027first quarter reportThis reflects the continued downsizing of the European steel industry and persistently low capacity

6、utilisation,driven by weak demand in recent years and increasing pressure from imports.EU STEEL MARKET OVERVIEWIn the third quarter of 2025,apparent steel consumption increased year-on-year by+4.6%,following two consecutive quarterly declines(-1.7%in the preceding quarter).This increase largely refl