大华银行（UOB）：2026年第二季度全球展望报告：驾驭关税与地缘政治双重变局（英文版）（62页）.pdf

1、Navigating tariffs and geopolitical dynamicsQuarterly Global Outlook 2Q 2026CONTENT0425173060165114-15Executive SummaryRates StrategyFX StrategyCommodities StrategyGroup Research TeamKey EventsTechnicalsForecastNavigating tariffs and geopolitical dynamicsWhen tariffs fluctuate but the rate path does

2、ntHow tariff drama and geopolitical tensions will alter the USDs pathWill Brent Crude Oil now play catch up with the strong metals rally?2Q 2026FX&CommoditiesReal GDP Growth TrajectoryFX,Interest Rate&CommoditiesNew ZealandUnited StatesUnited KingdomOutlook by EconomiesClick on the economy to view i

3、nsightEurozoneAustraliaJapanChinaVietnamSouth KoreaHong KongTaiwanPhilippinesSingaporeIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaThailandExplore more research insights atReach out to us atInformation as of 06 March .sg/researchGlobalEcoMktResearchUOBUOB Global Economics&Markets ResearchQuarterly Global Outlook 2Q 20264“

4、Theres never been a true war that wasnt fought between two sets of people who were certain they were in the right”-Neil Gaiman,American Gods(2001)Navigating tariffs and geopolitical dynamicsEXECUTIVE SUMMARYIn an era of US tariffs and military conflicts1Q of 2026 has ushered in a period of heightene

5、d uncertainty,due to aggressive US trade policies coinciding with an outright military conflict with Iran.US President Trumps tariff regime,though recently constrained by the Supreme Court,persists through alternative legal measures that continues to reshape global trade flows.Concurrently,the U.S.-

6、Iran war has escalated into a broader conflict across the Middle East and the direct targeting of energy facilities across the Gulf by Iran has brought shipping across the Strait of Hormuz to a halt,triggering a spike in energy prices and threatening the worlds most critical oil chokepoint.These int