汇丰HSBC:亚洲存储行业:AI主题投资中哪个子板块能带来超额回报?-260220(英文版)(20页).pdf

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汇丰HSBC:亚洲存储行业:AI主题投资中哪个子板块能带来超额回报?-260220(英文版)(20页).pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Seoul Securities Branch View HSBC Global Investment Re

2、search at:https:/ Investors are mostly positive while looking for areas of outperformance in the AI theme Still attractive memory as we pass the midpoint of the supercycle;too early to factor in concerns Our pecking order is NAND,SPEs,commodity DRAM and HBM makers,we still prefer Samsung Electronics

3、 Looking for areas of outperformance in the AI theme.During our 9-13 Feb Asia marketing we met 40 investors;most of their questions focused on potential risks around the longer memory supercycle;concerns included:1)the share price impact from the slowing DRAM price increase ratio from 2Q26e vs peak

4、absolute OP;2)a potential capex growth slowdown as major CSP capex approaches operating cash flow(OCF);3)the magnitude of DRAM and NAND demand decreases from sharper price hikes in consumer segments;4)where we are in the supercycle;and 5)the potential rise in competition in both DRAM and NAND from C

5、XMT and YMTC,respectively.Most investors seem to be enjoying the share price rally on memory stocks,and current mandates look to be finding segments for extra returns from fund allocation in the AI theme.Still attractive memory past the supercycle midpoint.We think 1)the memory supercycle is at a mi

6、dpoint similar to the 1990-95 cycle when cost reductions from office automation were invested in PC and local server purchases,leading to DRAM shortage for 6 years,even with strong supply growth.2)AI focus is shifting to memory(HBM,SO-CAMM2,ICMS)from GPU amid soaring inference activities.Lowering co

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