麦肯锡：2026大宗商品交易步入新时代临界点研究报告（英文版）（13页）.pdf

1、February 2026Global Energy&Materials PracticeAt the threshold of a new era in commodity tradingChanges in global trade and the growth of AI are shifting both commodity-trading structures and organizational models.Staying competitive in these new markets requires new strategies.by Fransje van der Mar

2、el and Roland Rechtsteiner,with Simon Tywuschik New pressures are building beneath the surface in commodity trading.Although margins remained similar with 2024,fewer organizations now control increasingly larger amounts of global commodity flows,and many are positioning themselves for the next super

3、cycle.At the same time,new entrants such as national oil companies(NOCs),mining companies,hedge funds,and renewables players with energy management capabilities are building trading capabilities to participate in emerging opportunities,and agentic AI is starting to change the operating model of the

4、entire industry.Many of these pressures are likely to erupt sooner rather than later.The question is how players can succeed in these new markets.Looking at industry performance over the past year,we focus on key future success factors,including investment appetite and AI transformations.The resulti

5、ng insights provide an overview of the industrys performance while considering how it could evolve in the decade to come.1 Joscha Schabram and Roland Rechtsteiner,“How to capture the next S-curve in commodity trading,”McKinsey,February 23,2025.Taking stock of commodity tradingThere is a new normal i

6、n commodity trading,with overall industry value now roughly twice as large as pre-COVID-19 levels,yet significantly down from 202223 heights.1 In fact,overall global value pools in 2025 decreased by approximately 5 percent from the previous year(Exhibit 1).The decline was primarily driven by softnes