标银集团：2026全球经济展望报告（英文版）（44页）.pdf

1、 1 2 Table of Contents G10 outlook for 2026:Resilience,with risks.3 EM in 2026:The tariff timer,the USD,and the mineral rush.8 Standing tall:Africas steadiness in a precarious world.17 South Africa politics 2026.26 South Africa macroeconomics 2026.32 3 G10 outlook for 2026 Resilience,with risks The

2、global economy has proven remarkably resilient in the face of the huge US tariff shock last year.This resilience is expected to continue in 2026.Indeed,global growth seems likely to be a few tenths higher than last year,at close to 3.5%.Countries have found ways to adapt to the tariff shock.China ha

3、s reorientated its trade to other parts of the world to such good effect that the contribution of trade to GDP last year was the highest it has been since 1997.While other countries have not been able to replicate Chinas successful trade strategy,they have found other ways to cope.Monetary easing ha

4、s continued for many and there are notable attempts to ease fiscal conditions as well,particularly in Germany and Japan.Another tailwind for the global economy rests on the continuation of accommodative global financial conditions.Not only have major central banks except the Bank of Japan been able

5、to reduce policy rates to,or near to,neutral,but global equities have stayed strong,credit spreads have narrowed,and asset price volatility has fallen to historically low levels.The result has been a substantial easing in global financial conditions amidst a turbulent period(Figure 1).Even the US ec

6、onomy,which was expected to bear the brunt of the damage caused by tariffs has likely grown by around 2%last year thanks,in no small measure,to the boom in AI-related activity such as the building of data centres.We doubt that this activity will slow materially in 2026 and,if we add to this the boos