罗兰贝格：2026年德国建筑行业雷达：复苏在望 备战之时（英文版）（12页）.pdf

1、Cover Olena Malik/GettyImagesFebuary 2026Recovery in sight Time to prepare Roland Berger Construction Radar 2026Roland Berger Construction Radar 2025Management Summary 2Germanys construction crisis is expected to reach its nadir in 2025,stabilize at a low level in 2026 and move into recovery from 20

2、27.In real terms,the industry is forecast to grow by around 2.0%per annum(2026-2028),led by new-build civil engineering as the strongest growth driver.Key market indicators such as the ifo Business Climate Index still point to a cautious outlook.However,sentiment has improved in 2025 compared to 202

3、4.In Q1Q3 2025,sector fundamentals improved year on year:Order intake,revenue and backlog increased across the three main segments of residential,non-residential and civil engineering,with sales in residential the only exception(2%decline).Permitting also shows early signs of stabilization.In Q1Q3 2

4、025,the granting of both residential and non-residential permits increased versus 2024(based on estimated construction costs).Residential permits also rose in absolute numbers,suggesting a modest recovery in 2026.Germanys EUR 500 billion infrastructure and climate fund is expected to provide a major

5、 industry tailwind,with an estimated EUR 160210 billion construction impact over ten years,primarily supporting civil engineering.A review of selected large companies across the construction value chain shows that many experienced declining revenue and net income in 2024 versus 2023.There are bright

6、 spots,but overall momentum remains negative.Roland Berger assessed the profitability levers across the construction value chain and identified seven key categories.The impact potential differs by value chain step.Roland Berger Construction Radar 20253Source:Euroconstruct,KfW,Federal Ministry of Fin