硅谷银行：2026年第一季度经济报告：影响全球市场与商业健康的经济和市场因素（英文版）（31页）.pdf

1、1st Quarter 2026SVB Asset Management views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business healthOverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Monetary PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and PerformanceA complex economic environment persisted in Q4 2025,characterized

2、 by resilient growth,inflationary pressures and a softening labor market.The US government shutdown from October 1 to November 12 disrupted economic data collection and affected consumer spending.Q3 2025 gross domestic product(GDP)grew at an annualized rate of 4.4%,driven by strong consumer spending

3、 and trade contributions.Growth was expected to moderate in Q4 due to the effects of the shutdown.Forecasts for US monetary policy in 2026 suggest a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve.Markets expect two additional rate cuts,likely around midyear.In addition,the Fed will aim to reach a neutral

4、rate by considering inflation trends,labor market conditions,economic growth and financial stability.Investment grade(IG)corporate bond spreads(which represent the yield premium demanded by investors for credit risk)are at their lowest levels in fifteen years.This reflects strong credit fundamentals

5、 as well as investors seeking yield in a declining rate environment.IG corporate bond issuance is expected to remain strong,supported by lower interest rates andattractive yields.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0126-0005AD-0131273The US labor market softened and job creation slowed.The average number of

6、jobs fell by approximately 23,000 per month between October and December.The softening in the labor market supported the rate cut by the Fed at the December FOMC meeting.The Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points(bps)in December 2025.The year concluded with